Forecasting to optimise flexibility procurement for electricity distribution networks
Northern Powergrid
We’re developing operational load forecasting models to enable Northern Powergrid to procure flexible demand-side assets, and optimise use of existing network capacity.
Projected NPV reinforcement costs avoided until 2033
Avoided through reductions in peak demand via flexibility services
Background
As more distributed assets are connected, Distribution Network Operators (DNOs) need to transition from network operators to system operators, proactively working with asset operators to manage network constraints. Flexibility services, whereby asset operators shift demand as a paid service, are often the least-cost option. However they are typically procured many months in advance, when asset owners do not have sufficient certainty to participate; this limits their scalability and utility for the DNO.
“Flexibility is a key lever for DNOs to maximise use of existing capacity. The forecasting capability we are developing is critical to unlocking the value in these markets, providing new options for DNOs to manage their networks.”
Andrew Glennie, Customer Director
Faculty
Solution
We are developing day and week-ahead operational load forecasting models to accurately define network flexibility needs closer to real-time, when asset operators have sufficient knowledge to stack their capabilities. The technical solution uses historical load data from across Northern Powergrid’s network, combined with weather forecasts and other factors, communicating both a forecast and the associated uncertainty.
Impact
This solution transforms an annual, assumptions-based approach into a semi-automated forecasting exercise that can be run daily, providing new capability for Northern Powergrid to procure market-based solutions closer to the time of need. This will allow a wider set of asset operators to participate, enabling DNOs to avoid physical reinforcement of their networks; which is estimated to save up to £60m in operating costs over the next decade.
“Northern Powergrid’s vision is to deliver a smarter and more flexible energy system. We chose Faculty because of their expertise implementing AI solutions for critical national infrastructure.”