Forecasting hospital demand and capacity at the height of the pandemic
NHS
As part of our long-standing partnership, our team built the technology that supported NHS Gold Command to understand the virus’ impact, and allocate critical care resources across the country where needed most.
Users across operational, clinical and strategic user groups
Better at predicting admissions compared to a simpler model
Background
NHS leaders were having to make critical, life-saving decisions to prioritise the safe delivery of care for patients. In the first wave of the pandemic, the NHS was operating blind; it was difficult to predict demand and identify areas where the system would face strain. National, regional and local teams needed to be forewarned of potential upticks in Covid-related hospital activity, so they could plan effectively.
“This project called for nothing short of an explainable, decision-centric AI solution that could be consistently relied upon by some of the country's most senior decision makers. All at a time when the stakes could not have been higher."
Marc Warner, Co-founder & CEO
Faculty
Solution
We built the Early Warning System (EWS), a first-of-its-kind end-to-end AI software for operational users across the NHS. The cutting-edge forecasting model can predict hospital demand at local/ regional/ national level three weeks in advance. By combining data on positive case numbers, 111 calls, and mobility data from Apple and Google, the EWS was able to provide robust forecasts for every NHS trust in England.
Impact
The EWS empowered the NHS to make life-saving interventions, plan the delivery of care, and allocate scarce resources with a degree of accuracy and confidence previously considered impossible. Deployed using both Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure – a multi-cloud approach to ensure better reliability and flexibility – the fully deployed software has over 1,000 daily users for key decision making. Over the course of its use, the EWS was used to make over half a million predictions, becoming a critical information source for decision makers ranging from the CEOs of individual hospitals to the Prime Minister.
“By using this leading technology developed with Faculty, we are helping to support frontline staff in their ongoing mission to save as many lives as they can by equipping them with the most accurate information."