Predicting and preventing worker shortages for a major food supplier
Major food supplier
We leveraged our AI-powered simulation technology to help the major food supplier predict which of their 120+ production facilities were most at-risk of labour shortages at a time of crisis, preventing plant closures and minimising disruption across the food supply chain.
accuracy of forecasts (aggregate)
of workforce vaccinated
Background
Labour shortages have long challenged US manufacturers, particularly in the food industry, due to reduced migrant labour, low recruitment, and high turnover. COVID-19 exacerbated this problem in two main ways. Food producers had to manage the shift in demand away from restaurants to grocery stores, causing price hikes, delays, and spot shortages. The shoulder-to-shoulder nature of production lines and limited access to protective gear put workers at constant risk of infection. To protect employees and maintain operations, the company introduced a vaccine mandate. The food supplier needed a solution to help them maximise vaccine uptake while taking proactive measures to mitigate the risk of closure as a result of worker shortages.
Solution
Our tool was used to forecast which plants were most at risk of closure due to workforce shortages, to minimise disruption if they were affected. Six weeks prior to the vaccination deadline, we rapidly deployed our technology to build a picture of current vaccination rates for staff, adding an array of different data sources including location, demographic, operational demand data and COVID-19 prevalence. We used these models to provide early warning of risk by plant (which plants were most at risk of disruption and where it would have the biggest impact on supply chains) and by job type (forecasted risk for all major job functions). Our forecasts quantified uncertainty so the team could make accurate decisions.
Impact
Our highly accurate forecasts of workforce shortages allowed our customer to take proactive steps at specific sites, avoiding major disruptions in food supply chains. We predicted which sites would be most affected, providing a range of confidence intervals to help operational teams better engage with the data and validate forecasts with on-the-ground insights. This enabled management to anticipate shortages and prioritise vaccination and hiring decisions ahead of the mandate deadline. As a result, tens of thousands of employees were vaccinated, bringing their workforce's vaccination rate to 96%. A review showed Faculty’s forecasts were 99.5% accurate, exceeding expectations and offering detailed, timely updates to improve vaccine uptake.